The Economic Brief


Global Economic Highlights

U.S. Economy Contracts Sharply: The U.S. economy shrank by -0.2% in Q1, a much steeper decline than expected. This has rattled markets and raised fears of a potential recession. However, durable goods orders rebounded by +8.6%, suggesting business investment remains resilient.

Oil & Commodities Volatility: Oil prices briefly surged past $78 per barrel due to Middle East tensions but have since settled around $75, as OPEC+ signals possible production increases. Gold is holding steady near $1,950/oz, reflecting investor caution amid geopolitical uncertainty.

UN Anti-Corruption Milestone: The UN Global Compact marked the end of its 15-year anti-corruption initiative, highlighting how ethical business practices have become central to sustainable development and investor confidence.

Global Economic Outlook: According to Coface’s June 2025 Risk Review, the world economy is entering a phase of “uncertainty as the new normal.” Trade tensions, U.S. tariffs, and Middle East instability are weighing on growth. Global GDP is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2025, with downside risks if geopolitical tensions escalate.


Middle East Economic Developments

Israel–Iran Ceasefire Impacts: A ceasefire between Israel and Iran has calmed energy markets, with oil prices dropping over 10% from recent highs. Israel’s TA-35 stock index rebounded by 5%, but analysts warn that renewed conflict could push oil above $100/bbl.

Saudi Arabia’s Oil Revenues Dip: Saudi oil export revenues fell to $16.5 billion in April, the lowest in nearly four years. This is due to falling oil prices and increased output. The kingdom may need to adjust fiscal plans if prices remain below $70/bbl.

IMF Disbursement to Jordan: Jordan received $834 million from the IMF to support reforms in water, energy, and healthcare. The country is praised for maintaining macroeconomic stability and is expected to grow 2.5% in 2024.

Egypt’s LNG and Investment Moves: Egypt announced plans to import LNG from July 2025 to June 2026 to meet domestic demand. It also sold $1 billion in sukuk to Kuwait Finance House and awarded six new gas exploration blocks in the Mediterranean and Sinai.

Regional Risk Monitoring: Several Middle Eastern governments, including Sri Lanka (with many workers in the Gulf), have formed crisis-monitoring committees to assess the economic fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict—especially on remittances, oil supply, and tourism.





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